Opportunity sizing and prioritisation
Which opportunity deserves the next unit of time, people or money?
How I use it
Define the opportunity before the solution
Describe the customer group, problem and business outcome. Use behaviour and research to establish why the gap exists. Keep the opportunity separate from a favourite feature so different interventions can compete.
Build a small model
Estimate eligible population × plausible change in behaviour × downstream commercial value. Make the time horizon, contribution margin, delivery cost, dependencies and cannibalisation visible.
Use ranges when evidence is weak. The result is a decision aid, not a promise.
Compare different scales of change
Ask both ‘what would make this 10% better?’ and ‘what would make it ten times better?’ The first can improve a working system; the second can expose a different customer, proposition, journey or business model. A ten-times question is an exploration prompt, not a forecast.
Choose and fund the next step
Compare expected value, confidence, effort, risk and strategic fit. Check whether a cheap investigation could reverse the choice.
Scores can structure discussion, but should not hide implausible assumptions. Name what will be deferred and make sure the team’s actual work reflects the decision.
An illustrative activation opportunity
- Eligible populationWho can actually be affected?
- ×Behaviour changeWhat improvement is plausible?
- ×Value per changeWhat contribution would it create?
A simple starting model, not a forecast. Then account for costs, timing, retention, dependencies and overlap with other work.
There are 2,000 eligible accounts in a monthly cohort. A hypothesised 10 percentage-point activation improvement would produce 200 additional activated accounts. If 25% of those become paying customers and each contributes £40 per month, the model gives £2,000 additional monthly contribution once all those assumptions hold.
That is before project costs, ongoing retention, timing and any effect on other customers. Compare it with an alternative, vary the activation-to-payment assumption and find the cheapest evidence that would change the investment decision.
What to watch for
- Using total market size as if it were a reachable product population.
- Mixing percentage points and relative percentage change.
- Adding overlapping opportunity estimates or ignoring the work required to capture them.
A brief for the next discussion.
A short comparison of options, a chosen priority and the assumption worth testing first.
Choose where to invest
Where is your growth work getting stuck?
Use the growth diagnostic to find where to focus, or talk it through with me.